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L. W. HardingJr. C. L. Gallegos E. S. Perry W. D. Miller J. E. Adolf M. E. Mallonee H. W. Paerl 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(3):664-681
Climate effects on hydrology impart high variability to water-quality properties, including nutrient loadings, concentrations, and phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a), in estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Resolving long-term trends of these properties requires that we distinguish climate effects from secular changes reflecting anthropogenic eutrophication. Here, we test the hypothesis that strong climatic contrasts leading to irregular dry and wet periods contribute significantly to interannual variability of mean annual values of water-quality properties using in situ data for Chesapeake Bay. Climate effects are quantified using annual freshwater discharge from the Susquehanna River together with a synoptic climatology for the Chesapeake Bay region based on predominant sea-level pressure patterns. Time series of water-quality properties are analyzed using historical (1945–1983) and recent (1984–2012) data for the bay adjusted for climate effects on hydrology. Contemporary monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) provides data for a period since mid-1984 that is significantly impacted by anthropogenic eutrophication, while historical data back to 1945 serve as historical context for a period prior to severe impairments. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) are developed for nutrient loadings and concentrations (total nitrogen—TN, nitrate?+?nitrate—NO2?+?NO3) at the Susquehanna River and water-quality properties in the bay proper, including dissolved nutrients (NO2?+?NO3, orthophosphate—PO4), chl-a, diffuse light attenuation coefficient (K D (PAR)), and chl-a/TN. Each statistical model consists of a sum of nonlinear functions to generate flow-adjusted time series and compute long-term trends accounting for climate effects on hydrology. We present results identifying successive periods of (1) eutrophication ca. 1945–1980 characterized by approximately doubled TN and NO2?+?NO3 loadings, leading to increased chl-a and associated ecosystem impairments, and (2) modest decreases of TN and NO2?+?NO3 loadings from 1981 to 2012, signaling a partial reversal of nutrient over-enrichment. Comparison of our findings with long-term trends of water-quality properties for a variety of estuarine and coastal ecosystems around the world reveals that trends for Chesapeake Bay are weaker than for other systems subject to strenuous management efforts, suggesting that more aggressive actions than those undertaken to date will be required to counter anthropogenic eutrophication of this valuable resource. 相似文献
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Shoreline retreat at Titan’s Ontario Lacus and Arrakis Planitia from Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem observations 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Recent observations by Cassini’s Imaging Science Subsystem reveal that part of the shoreline of Titan’s Ontario Lacus has retreated by several kilometers and may indicate that the dark area that appeared at Arrakis Planitia (80°S, 120°W) in late 2004 has subsequently faded. These changes provide constraints on aspects of Titan’s methane cycle, as well as on the properties of Titan’s surface materials. 相似文献
44.
Mark E. Perry Daniel S. Kahan Olivier S. Barnouin Carolyn M. Ernst Sean C. Solomon Maria T. Zuber David E. Smith Roger J. Phillips Dipak K. Srinivasan Jürgen Oberst Sami W. Asmar 《Planetary and Space Science》2011,59(15):1925-1931
The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft completed three flybys of Mercury in 2008–2009. During the first and third of those flybys, MESSENGER passed behind the planet from the perspective of Earth, occulting the radio-frequency (RF) transmissions. The occultation start and end times, recovered with 0.1 s accuracy or better by fitting edge-diffraction patterns to the RF power history, are used to estimate Mercury's radius at the tangent point of the RF path. To relate the measured radius to the planet shape, we evaluate local topography using images to identify the high-elevation feature that defines the RF path or using altimeter data to quantify surface roughness. Radius measurements are accurate to 150 m, and uncertainty in the average radius of the surrounding terrain, after adjustments are made from the local high at the tangent point of the RF path, is 350 m. The results are consistent with Mercury's equatorial shape as inferred from observations by the Mercury Laser Altimeter and ground-based radar. The three independent estimates of radius from occultation events collectively yield a mean radius for Mercury of 2439.2±0.5 km. 相似文献
45.
Wildfires cause enormous damage worldwide, particularly in Victoria, Australia, with growing populations in fire-prone ecosystems. Broad-scale prescribed burning is an established, yet controversial, wildfire management policy in Victoria and Australia. But does broad-scale prescribed burning reduce fire damage? The answer depends on how damage is measured. We propose that different perceptions about the efficacy of broad-scale prescribed burning derive from different disciplinary measures of damage (e.g., biodiversity, area burned, or fatalities). Although broad-scale prescribed burning reduces subsequent wildfire size, there is little evidence that it saves human lives and homes. Evidence suggests that small-scale fuel reduction may be more effective at saving lives. The prescribed burning debate might be better focused on what damage we wish to limit, and which measures are most effective at limiting this damage. In this context, the current policy focus on broad-scale prescribed burning targets may distract efforts from more effective lifesaving strategies. 相似文献
46.
We present measurements of hillslope debris flow impact pressures on small obstacles. Two impact sensors have been installed in a real-scale experimental site where 50?m3 of water-saturated soil material are released from rest. Impact velocities vary between 2 and 13?m/s; flow heights between 0.3 and 1.0?m. The maximum impact pressures measured over 15 events represent between 2 and 50 times the equivalent static pressures. The measurements reveal that quadratic velocity-dependent formulas can be used to estimate impact pressures. Impact coefficients C are constant from front to tail and range between 0.4?<?C?<?0.8 according to the individual events. The pressure fluctuations to depend on the sensor size and are between 20% and 60% of the mean pressure values. Our results suggest that hazard guidelines for hillslope debris flows should be based on quadratic velocity-dependent formulas. 相似文献
47.
Short‐finned wild eels fed an artificial diet containing either a low (5%) or a high (20%) oil content were found to increase their mass by an average of more than 30% after a 34‐day feeding period; the lipid content of the eels’ muscle was also increased from about 10% to around 20%. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - Most research on household disaster preparedness has focussed on physical, or material, preparation. Recently, researchers have turned attention to investigating psychological, or... 相似文献
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